-Sudiep Shrivastava

INTRODUCTION & DEMOGRAPHY :
On 29th October, the last date for withdrawal of nominations in Himachal Pradesh, 413 candidates remain in the fray for 68 seats.

The BJP and Congress are the front runners for the seat of power in Shimla, the elections look evenly poised.

The State has a tradition to vote out the incumbent Government. That pervading feeling and tradition is the biggest strength of the Congress Party which is lacking a towering leader like Veer Bhadra Singh.

On the other hand the BJP is also facing a leadership crunch but of a different kind. Chief Minister Jairam Thakur is not perceived to be a strong administrator as his predecessors and is thus more dependent on the Central Leadership to sail them through.
 
DEMOGRAPHY:

The State has 32% Thakur/Rajput population. Except BJP’s Shantakumar, all other former CMs came from this community. Another 18% is Bramhins. HP is an upper caste majority State.

The Dalits/SC are 27% but they are divided into 40 odd different sub-castes and do not form a cohesive vote block.

The OBC and STs are 13 and 6 percent respectively. They too are divided into many sub-castes. Except Kangra Region and some areas like Sirmour where HATI (Please specify) community fought for ST status- a demand which was acceded to by the central government- caste is not a sole dominating factor and remain in underplay here unlike UP and Bihar where the same is most prevalent reason in any election.

THE INFIGHTING : While Congress is used to facing such revolt, this time BJP will also face the burnt

There are 7 rebel candidates contesting from Congress fold whereas BJP has had to grapple with double that number.

The Rebel factor will affect the prospects of both the parties.

The notable Congress rebels are Subhash Chandra Manglet of Chopal, Gangu Ram Musafir of Pachchhad, whereas the BJP is not able to manage Hiteshwar Singh in Banjar, Abhishek Singh Thakur in Sundar Nagar and Praveen Sharma in Mandi Sadar seat.

What is more important is that all these three seats lie in the area from where sitting CM Jairam Thakur comes.

It is true that both Congress and BJP have been able to convince some of the rebels. For instance, Congress persuaded former Minister Kuldeep Kumar in Chintpurni and BJP convinced Maheshwar Singh from Kullu.

However, that may not be enough and the outcome of the election is likely to be affected in a big way by this rebellion in which BJP appears to be on a weaker wicket.

THE CM POST TUSSLE :

While before ticket announcement, leaders like Pratibha Singh, Mukesh Agnihotri and Sukhvinder Sukhu and many more were claimants for the top post.

The groupism in the Congress has permeated to block and even village level which may result in loss of some 2 to 5 thousands votes in every seat. This is a significant number in a State which has most of the assemblies with 70 to 80 thousand voters.

The Union Minister of State Anurag Thakur, son of former CM Prem Kumar Dhumal has also not been able to secure tickets in the desired numbers for his followers. The BJP has somehow consoled him by accommodating Ravinder Ravi. HOWEVER Dhumal Senior is still believed to be very angry for being sidelining JP Nadda. This may generate sizable dissent amongst the BJP cadres which the top leadership may find difficult to overcome. 11 MLAs of BJP have been denied tickets may silently work to ensure the defeat of the person who has been preferred by the party over them.

ISSUES :
The main issues of the Himachal Election is the question of Change like previous elections. The BJP is trying hard to convince the voters that it would be able to buck this trend.

Whereas the Congress is focusing on the issues like UnEmployment and Inflation as that will limit the capacity of the Prime Minister Modi to attract voters especially Women and Youths. The OPS Old Pension Scheme is also a big issue as out of total families of the Himachal, more than 15% are directly related to Government Jobs. The AgniVeer scheme has added insult to the injury of unemployment and youths and their parents are especially angry.

DEVELOPMENT DONE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH :  

In the last five years some Big Ticket Development projects have been commenced/inaugurated by the BJP leadership like IIT at Mandi, IIM at Solan, AIIMS at Bilaspur, resumption of Air Services at Shimla, New Airport Project at Mandi however that may not be enough to overcome the anti-incumbency generated against the MLAs and the State Government. The Rural Road is still a big question whereas not providing new employment is also an issue. The Apple farming area is also hit by imposition of GST on all packing cartons. The GST on the food items have not gone down well whereas 3 free LPG Cylinders is negated by the price rise of that very cylinder.

WELFARE MEASURES :

The major achievement of the State Government is considered to be HIMCARE Scheme which is for health issue money assistance. 50% reduction of Bus Fare to women is also being welcomed while Critically ill patients also get special assistance under the Sahara scheme. However, the continuation of these schemes is being put under question as the BJP Central Government is opposing the concept of Freebies and calling them “Revadi”. On the other hand Congress is giving an offer of “Ten Guarantees'' which includes soaps for different sectors including for Employment and Old Pension Scheme and 300 Unit free power per month to every household.

SABOTAGE CONTROL–ELECTION MANAGEMENT – X FACTOR AAP

The aforesaid averments clearly points out that the Himachal 2022 is not going to be A Cake Walk for any of the Party. Here AAP is not putting as much effort as it is putting in Gujarat yet a sizable 5-6 % voters are blindly following Arvind Kejariwal model of Governance. Those votes are coming from both Congress and BJP fold. However it’s a thumb rule that any third party divides Anti Government Votes and in that sense it will cut more votes of Congress than BJP. This factor is also going to be viewed in the coming Himachal Election.

A political party which would be more able to control sabotage effectively and keep its flock together has a better chance in the Himachal Pradesh to win the election. Congress though has lost it in 2017 but its vote share was well above 41% which is a crucial factor in any bipolar State. The BJP has touched a high of 49% votes in the 2017 Election and is bound to come down a bit. Though the BJP has denied tickets to 11 of its MLAs so far, its 30 plus MLAs are still in fray with sizable anti-incumbency against many of them. The Bye Elections of 2021 results were also not very positive for BJP yet the strength of its Election Machinery and zeal to win each and every election put it in an equal position like Congress. Congress on the other hand has to ensure coordinated campaign and least number of rebel candidates against its official candidates. It also requires keeping an eye on the AAP candidate and its support base in any particular constituency to ensure that the damage caused by AAP would not result in the win of a BJP candidate who is otherwise likely to lose.

(Writer is a practicing lawyer in Chhattisgarh High Court, and a regular political analyst on national news channels)